Improving Your Judgment for Better Decision-Making

Being jugdmental versus having good judgment

Judgmental Mindset

• Makes claims based on limited information
• Make sense when we’re judging quickly

Judgment Mindset

• Applies data, information, and analysis to get at the heart of a situation

HOG

• Head – applying data and experience to analyze the situation.
• Others – seeking other perspectives or expertise to expand or influence your point of view.
• Gut – using your instinct or intuitive reaction.

The good judgment formula

Good Data + Good Information + Good Analysis = Good Judgment

Good Data – Prepare

• Confirming data
• Disconfirming data

Good Information

• What finer points am I missing?
• What am i missing about the bigger picture?

Good Analysis

• What does the best outcome look like?
• What does the worst outcome look like?

Improving your judgment about people

• Likeability – emotional judgment
  • Affect Heuristic – bias that makes us rely on our emotional feelings
• Trustworthiness
  • Consistency
  • Predictability
  • Reliability
• Competance
  • Confirmation bias – bias that makes us seek evidence that confirms our preexisting beliefs and reject evidence that does not.

Improving your judgment in challenging situations

Good judgment requires a clear head.

Smile Therapy
Smiling during brief periods of stress helps reduce the body’s stress response regardless of whether we actually feel happy or not.

4-7-8 Breathing

1. Exhale
2. Inhale slowly for 4 seconds.
3. Hold your breath for 7 seconds.
4. Exhale forcefully for 8 seconds.

Repeat up to 4 times.

Bullet Point Notes
The act of writing notes by hand increases neural activity.

Using good judgment to make your case

1. Did I highlight common ground?
2. Did I make my main claim clear?
3. Did I identify three reasons?
4. Did I provide evidence for each reason?
5. Did I check for and remove logical fallacies in my argument?

How to judge the future

Foxy Thinking

1. Avoid overconfidence from hindsight bias.
2. Create a Wonderlist
   1. Pick at least three industries outside your own.
   2. Create a wish list of these people for your Wonderlist.
   3. Connect with your wish list of people on LinkedIN and ask if they’d be willing to exchange ideas.

Becoming more self-aware

Critical reflection is a crucial part of innovation.

1. What type of people do I prefer to work with?
2. What type of people prefer to work with me?
3. What makes me stop listening to people?
4. What makes people stop listening to me?

Self-Awareness Blockers:

• Blind-spot bias
• Self-serving bias
• Negativity bias